April 26, 2024
Shri S. Somanath, Secretary, DOS/Chairman, ISRO, released the Indian Space Situational Assessment Report (ISSAR) for 2023 compiled by ISRO System for Safe and Sustainable Space Operations Management (IS4OM) on April 2, 2024.
Space Situational Assessment 2023 Space assets operating in outer space are vulnerable to various environmental hazards- natural objects like asteroids, comets, and meteoroids, energy and particle flux, and artificial space objects. Therefore, continual awareness of the space environment and its future evolution, namely Space Situational Awareness (SSA), becomes an essential pre-requisite for safe and sustainable operations in outer space. ISRO’s SSA activities include close approach assessment of satellites and launch vehicles, prediction of atmospheric re-entry, the study of the evolution of space object population to safeguard national space assets, and also promoting responsible behaviour while conducting operations in outer space. An annual assessment of the prevailing space situation is also compiled in the form of the Indian Space Situational Assessment Report (ISSAR) for reference and dissemination to the relevant stakeholders. The highlights of the latest space situational assessment for the year 2023 are presented next.
Close approach risk mitigation for Indian space assets in 2023
Space Object Proximity Analysis (SOPA) for Satellites ISRO regularly carries out analyses through IS4OM/ ISTRAC to predict close approaches by other space objects to Indian space assets. In case of any critical close approach, collision avoidance manoeuvres (CAM) are carried out to safeguard the operational spacecraft. The following are the relevant statistics for the year 2023:
The graph shows the total number of collision avoidance Manoeuvres (CAMs) carried out by ISRO for its Earth-orbiting satellites over the last few years. An increasing trend in CAMs per year is observed, which can be correlated with the growing congestion in outer space. No concerning close approaches with other space objects were detected for the Chandrayaan-3 mission throughout its mission phases, and also for Aditya-L1 during its Earth-bound phase. The table shows the number of Orbit Manoeuvers (OM) executed for the ISRO satellites to maintain their orbits within the respective mission-specified limits:
Collision Avoidance Analysis (COLA) for Launch Vehicles COLA analyses for lift-off clearance of launch vehicles were carried out as part of the mandatory Launch Clearance Protocol of ISRO launch vehicles.
The table below shows the COLA results for the launches in 2023.
For PSLV-C55/Te-LEOS-2, the nominal lift-off had to be delayed by 1 minute based on the COLA analysis to avoid close approaches between an operational satellite and the injected satellites in their orbital phase due to overlapping operational altitudes.
For LVM3-M4/ Chandrayaan-3, the nominal lift-off had to be delayed by 4 seconds based on COLA analysis to avoid close approaches between a debris object and the injected satellites in their orbital phase due to overlapping operational altitudes.
For PSLV-C56/ DS-SAR, the nominal lift-off had to be delayed by 1 minute based on COLA analysis to avoid close approaches between Starlink satellites and the injected satellites in their orbital phase due to overlapping operational altitudes.
The figure shows the so-called “black-out” zones within the launch window, over which the lift-off timings were prohibited for the PSLV-C56 launch to avoid potentially close approach risk with other space objects. To resolve close approach situations with active satellites, the required spaceflight safety-related coordination was carried out with the respective operators. Such coordination was also carried out with SpaceX during the PSLV launches.
Spacecraft Decommissioning and Post Mission Disposal
International Cooperation
As a signatory of all major space treaties, India has always placed high importance on the long-term sustainability (LTS) of outer space activities. ISRO System for Safe and Sustainable Operations Management (IS4OM) has been operational since 2022 to safeguard ISRO’s space assets and to improve compliance with internationally recognised guidelines on the long-term sustainability of outer space activities.
ISRO is an active participant in many international fora such as the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) with 13 space agencies, the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) space debris working group, International Astronautical Federation (IAF) space traffic management working group, International Organization for Standardization (ISO) space debris working group and UN-COPUOS scientific & technical sub-committee/ legal sub-committee, for discussing space debris issues, related studies and the long-term sustainability of outer space activities. India is the chair of the UN working group on the Long-term Sustainability of outer space activities. ISRO, as the chair of the IADC for 2023-24, will be hosting the 42nd annual IADC meet in April 2024.
ISRO participated in the annual re-entry campaign of IADC with ERS-02 as the test object for the year 2023 and shared the re-entry predictions. ISRO delegation has significantly contributed to the revision of IADC space debris mitigation guidelines, assessment of large constellation effects on space activities, extending space debris mitigation guidelines to cis-lunar region, and other space sustainability aspects of IADC.
Summary and Way Forward The consolidated data for 2023 indicates a steady growth in the space object population, as reflected by the maximum number of on-orbit payload deployments with the maximum number of launches in 2023. The number of close approach alerts received and the number of CAMs (Collision Avoidance Manoeuvre) executed by ISRO was also the highest to date.
Operating in an environment inhabited by a growing population of active satellites requires Space Traffic Management (STM). However, unlike air and marine traffic, no universally accepted framework for STM exists at present, hence the resolution of an on-orbit close approach between two active satellites is carried out on case-by-case by inter-operator coordination. With the skyrocketing satellite population, especially in LEO, such coordination will be challenging in the future.
Furthermore, the scope of space-based activities is expanding at a rapid pace with easier access to space with technological advancements, rideshare capabilities, and the growing recognition of the immense potential of space-based technologies, prompting more players to embrace space-based technology and applications. The recent reforms have ushered in a new era for the Indian space sector encouraging more participation from private industries and academia. For sustainable space activities, a holistic approach needs to be taken to catalyse the space sector growth. It must be recognised by all space actors that, unlike terrestrial activities, any activity in space has potentially global and far-reaching implications, and near-Earth space is a finite resource that must be utilized responsibly to harness it for societal benefits.
New ventures like mega constellations, space tourism, human presence beyond Earth etc. present unprecedented challenges to safe and sustainable operations. Addressing these challenges demands innovative solutions with the development of cutting-edge technologies for practical implementation of active debris removal, and on-orbit servicing, in addition to widespread adoption of best practices and guidelines for LTS. Finally, international collaboration plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the near-Earth space environment remains preserved and protected for the continued exploration and utilisation by our posterity.
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